GBCB5874: Problem Solving in GBCB - Spring 2007. The Life and Death Project
First Steps:
Get general background on ageing, life expectancy etc.
Some references can be found here . VT library has a useful book: "Handbook of the theories of aging."
Get mathematical definitions of relative terminology. Life expectancy at birth, mean life time, maximum lifetime, etc. Wikipedia has some of the basics. Also, see this publication
Basic models, such as Gompertz model, and their basis.
Next Step: Make a presentation in class.
Intermediate goal: set up a simple model that describes the "Gompertz" curve reasonably well. A stochastic Markov model is one possibility. Later we can consider an alternative based on an equivalent differential equation, smth. like dP/dt = -P*lambda(t). Where P(t) is the prbability to be alive at time t, and lambda(t) is taken to be such that P(t) gives you the right "life" curve.
April 22 Update.
Finish what was discussed in class last. Extend d(i) to > 100 years using Gompertz fit to the existing data. Extrapolate the breakdown by cause of death to above > 85 (?) years by some reasonable fit. Linear or Gompertz. Make sure everything is properly normalized. Then analyse life expectency changes upon exclusion of various causes.